March 12, 2014
If you’re following the news, you’re probably aware of the most recent European conflict brewing. What is remarkable about it though is that the closer you try to follow it, the more confused you get. So wait, Russians invaded? But they didn’t fire a single shot…
The Kiev protesters are fascists? That’s what pro Russian politicians claim, yet we heard nothing about it. Finally, what will happen next? Are we in for a 3rd world war?
Let me fill you in on how it looks from a neighbors’ perspective.
Yes, Russians invaded. Even though they officially deny any ties, the 16-35 thousands (estimates vary) of Russian troops that entered Crimea are clearly an invasion force. They’re not there to fight the army, they’re there to “secure” the area until the “democratic” Russian favoring Crimean parliament secedes from Ukraine and either wants to create a new buffer state country, or wants to join Mother Russia. Even though they might not be carrying Russian insignia on their uniforms, several of these “mysterious” soldiers were recognized as Spetznaz soldiers and the registration plates on the vehicles clearly show they came from Russia.
Kiev protesters were never a homogeneous group. What united them was the opposition to the rampant disregard for the law by the president and his cabinet, biggest corruption in Europe and the standards of living that only got worse. There are many extremists among those protesting, but the claim that they are the majority is simply not true. The new government elected after president Yanukovych fled Kiev are neither fascists nor any other kind of extremists.
What will happen now? Your bet is as good as mine. There are several possible outcomes, with things going back to the way they were being the least probable one. Russians probably won’t let go of Crimea now that they have a strong military presence there, they didn’t start this war just to back away. They probably won’t annex Crimea though, they hardly need to and it would make this politically complicated mess quite straightforward. We’re probably looking at the birth of a new nation, one that only in theory will be at least somewhat independent from Russia. The west probably won’t stop the Russians, even though they will rattle their sabers, flex their muscles and threaten with sanctions. A world war 3 won’t erupt, at least not yet.
Jack Frenson is a gentelman and a scholar. He’s been around the world many times, saw it all and is a general repository of wisdom and truth. In his spare time he helps the blind, the poor and the unfortunate. Lately he’s been looking into Schools in England, who knows what he will be up to next ?jackfrenson